Investment Rating - Buy-A rating (首次覆盖) [1][8] Core Views - The company is a high-dividend-paying central state-owned enterprise (SOE) with a focus on differentiated products and improving profitability [2] - The "Bio+" strategy is accelerating, driving growth in high-margin biological fertilizers and capturing demand from economic crops [3] - The company has abundant phosphate ore reserves, with potential for future growth [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 18.21 billion, with net profit of RMB 1.287 billion, a 3% YoY increase [1] - Gross margin improved from 8.66% in 2021 to 12.15% in H1 2024, while net margin increased from 3.88% to 7.77% over the same period [2] - The company's cash dividend payout ratio reached 50% in 2023, with cumulative cash dividends of RMB 1.007 billion over 2021-2023 [2] "Bio+" Strategy - The "Bio+" strategy focuses on core products like Blue Scale and Kedefeng, with new products such as the "Huanfeng" brand driving growth [3] - Revenue from the growth business reached RMB 5.555 billion in H1 2024, up 5% YoY, with pre-tax profit of RMB 398 million, a 27% YoY increase [3] - The company has completed trial production and sales of four key "Bio+" products, leveraging resources from Sinochem Group and Syngenta [3] Phosphate Ore Reserves - The company's subsidiary, Sinochem Yunlong, has nearly 200 million tons of phosphate ore reserves, with the Meizushao mining area holding 110 million tons and the Dawan mining area holding 90 million tons [4] - The Meizushao mining area has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of high-quality, low-silicon, low-heavy-metal phosphate ore, with significant future potential [4] Valuation and Forecast - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 0.17, RMB 0.19, and RMB 0.20, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.0x, 5.1x, and 5.0x [8] - The company's dividend yield is expected to be 8.28%, 9.65%, and 9.86% for 2024-2026, based on a 50% payout ratio [2] - Revenue is projected to grow by 14.02% in 2024, with net profit expected to increase by 85.33% YoY [10]
中化化肥：高股息分红央企，布局“生物+”战略享受景气修复