Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianzhen Co., Ltd. (301356) [11][115] Core Views - Tianzhen Co., Ltd. has a strong position in the PVC flooring export business, leveraging its R&D advantages, product quality, and stable supply chain to lead the industry. The company is currently undergoing a "third entrepreneurship" phase, focusing on expanding production bases in Southeast Asia and the U.S. while launching new RPET flooring products, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [5][11][115]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review - Tianzhen Co., Ltd. established itself as a leader in the PVC flooring market, achieving peak revenue of 3.181 billion yuan in 2021, with over 7% market share in China's PVC flooring exports. The company faced a downturn in 2023 due to U.S. customs supply chain tracing issues [6][29][30]. 2. Current Situation - The company has demonstrated resilience in operations despite external pressures, with a stable management team and strong customer relationships. The PVC flooring business is recovering, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 220 million yuan, a 37.5% quarter-on-quarter increase and an 856.5% year-on-year increase [7][11][95]. 3. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the simultaneous growth of its PVC and new RPET flooring products. The RPET flooring, which is environmentally friendly and aesthetically appealing, is anticipated to gain traction in the U.S. and European markets, further enhancing revenue potential [7][11][95]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for Tianzhen Co., Ltd. from 2024 to 2026 are -39 million yuan, 183 million yuan, and 440 million yuan, respectively. The current market capitalization is 3.9 billion yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 21 and 9 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][11][114]. 5. Key Assumptions - The recovery of the PVC flooring business is expected to continue, with projected revenues of 8.24 billion yuan, 17.90 billion yuan, and 27.98 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting significant year-on-year growth rates [12][109]. The RPET flooring segment is also expected to contribute significantly, with revenues projected at 0.88 billion yuan, 6.83 billion yuan, and 14.70 billion yuan over the same period [12][109].
天振股份：传统PVC地板及新品RPET地板共振，底部向上空间可期