DellFY25Q3观察：GB200出货放量在即，服务器市场竞争加剧

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI server market is experiencing significant growth, with Dell's AI server revenue accounting for 49% of its total server revenue in FY25Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58% [2][6]. - The competition in the server market is intensifying as various manufacturers, including Dell, Hon Hai, and Gigabyte, ramp up their shipments of AI servers, particularly with the introduction of NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 [2][3]. - Dell's FY25Q3 revenue was $24.37 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, but fell short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $24.59 billion [6]. Summary by Sections AI Server Market - The AI server market is driven by the ongoing demand for high-performance computing, with Dell, Hon Hai, and Gigabyte reporting substantial revenue growth [2][3]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 servers are expected to see increased shipments starting in FY25Q1, with Dell already completing its first batch delivery [2][3]. Traditional Server and Storage Revenue - Dell's storage business revenue reached $4.0 billion in FY25Q3, showing a 4% year-on-year increase, with notable demand for Power Store and Power Flex products [4]. - The traditional server market is also recovering, with a 15.1% year-on-year increase in X86 server CPU shipments in Q3 2024 [4]. PC Market Dynamics - Dell's Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenue was $12.13 billion in FY25Q3, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, with personal PC revenue dropping 18% [5]. - The global AI PC market is still in its early stages, with AI PC shipments accounting for 20% of total PC shipments in Q3 2024, indicating a slow adoption rate [5]. Financial Performance - Dell's net profit for FY25Q3 was $1.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with adjusted EPS of $2.15, exceeding consensus estimates [6]. - The guidance for FY25Q4 revenue is projected to be between $24 billion and $25 billion, which is below market expectations [6].