政策托底，品牌求进，科技为攻

Market Overview - The automotive sector is expected to maintain high prosperity, with passenger car wholesale sales projected at 28.78 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%[1] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are anticipated to reach 14.69 million units, growing by 21% year-on-year, while exports are expected to hit 5.92 million units, an 18% increase[1] Industry Trends - The domestic market is witnessing a shift towards high-end models, with brands like BYD and Geely leading the charge in the mid-to-low-end market[1] - The penetration rate of high-level intelligent driving is expected to reach 15% in 2025, with significant advancements in autonomous driving technology[1] Global Expansion - Chinese automakers are focusing on Latin America, adapting models to local preferences, which is expected to generate new market growth[1] - The global automotive parts industry is accelerating its expansion, with 2025-2026 likely marking the beginning of overseas production and profit release[1] Commercial Vehicles - Heavy truck sales are projected to reach 960,000 units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%[1] - The domestic demand for heavy trucks is expected to be 620,000 units, while exports are forecasted at 340,000 units[1] Motorcycle Market - The large-displacement motorcycle segment is expected to grow over 25% in 2025, with total sales projected at 1.638 million units[1] - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are anticipated to increase by 40% to 460,000 units, with Europe being a key growth market[1] Investment Recommendations - Continued investment in brands like BYD and Geely is recommended for their strong performance in the mid-to-low-end market[1] - Focus on companies capable of capturing overseas orders and expanding globally, such as Xpeng Motors and Li Auto[1] Risks - Potential macroeconomic downturns could lead to insufficient demand, and ongoing chip shortages may impact production[2]