家电行业2025年投资策略：内需搭台，寻结构性增量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand and structural growth opportunities, particularly through the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy [2][3] - The overall revenue and net profit for the home appliance sector in Q1-Q3 2024 reached CNY 1,184 billion and CNY 92.5 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.1% and 5.7% [2] - The gross margin and net profit margin for the home appliance sector were 25.3% and 7.8%, showing slight year-on-year changes of -0.2 and +0.1 percentage points [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review Since 2024 - The home appliance sector has seen a recovery driven by external sales and the "old-for-new" policy, with white goods and black goods outperforming the industry [12] - Fund holdings in the home appliance sector reached 5.0% in Q3 2024, indicating potential for growth compared to the historical average of 5.8% from 2017 to 2020 [16] 2. Strategy One: Focus on Domestic Demand and "Old-for-New" Policy - The national "old-for-new" policy launched in July 2024 is expected to stimulate demand for various home appliances, leading to improved sales performance in Q4 [3] - Key companies such as Hisense, Bear Electric, and Joyoung are anticipated to benefit from this policy [3] 3. Strategy Two: Opportunities in the Real Estate Chain - The real estate sector has shown signs of recovery, with companies like Vatti and Boss Electric expected to benefit from improved sales due to policy support [4] 4. Strategy Three: Impact of Potential Tariffs and Exports to Non-U.S. Markets - Chinese home appliance companies are likely to expand their market share in emerging markets, with minimal impact from potential U.S. tariffs on key exporters like Hisense and Midea [5] 5. Strategy Four: Industry Consolidation - The domestic market has seen the emergence of competitive conglomerates through mergers and acquisitions, supported by favorable policies from regulatory bodies [6] 6. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and those with significant export exposure to non-U.S. markets [7]