2025年度策略系列报告“碧海潮生，日出东方”：供给侧出清+改善的行业筛选模型和选股逻辑

Group 1 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery of the domestic economy in 2025, driven by policy support, with certain industries expected to complete supply-side clearing and emerge from deflation [1][2] - The analysis focuses on identifying potential industries that are at the initial stage of reversal characterized by "supply-side bottom clearing" and "beginning improvement," which offers higher investment certainty and odds compared to previous phases [1][12] - The selected industries that meet the criteria of supply-side clearing and improvement include basic chemicals, transportation, power equipment, machinery, automobiles, social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and textiles [2][13] Group 2 - The industry screening process begins with analyzing financial data from Q3 2024, focusing on operational efficiency, new supply, and profitability through six key indicators [2][16] - The model's effectiveness is supported by backtesting results, showing that when supply-side clearing and improvement occur, an average absolute return of 6.0% and an excess return of 1.3% can be achieved in the following quarter [2][38] - Further selection of potential stocks within the identified industries considers cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and profit expectations, focusing on manufacturing sector opportunities [46][47] Group 3 - The report outlines a comprehensive analysis of supply-side conditions using three perspectives: operational efficiency, new supply, and profitability, with specific indicators for each [16][24] - The analysis of operational efficiency includes inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover, identifying industries that are experiencing supply-side clearing and marginal improvement [18][24] - Profitability analysis utilizes gross margin and revenue growth to assess the industry's stage in the supply-side clearing process, identifying sectors with potential for improvement [24][27]