华金宏观·双循环周报（第84期）：美国消费火热或将大幅限制美联储降息幅度

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core PCEPI in the U.S. rose from 2.7% to 2.8% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase after three months of stability[9] - The month-on-month increase in core PCEPI was 0.3%, driven primarily by a significant rise in core service prices excluding housing, which increased by 0.4%[9] - Actual consumer spending in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-on-month in October, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%, despite a slight decline from September[11] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Government Policies - The current high inflation is supported by a combination of high fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy, and protectionist trade policies, which continue to bolster consumer spending[11] - Durable goods consumption showed strong performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, contributing 0.1 percentage points to the year-on-year consumer spending growth[11] - The labor market remains robust, with rising real wages and increased household wealth supporting consumer spending, despite temporary disruptions in the service sector due to extreme weather[15] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by persistent inflation, with expectations of no rate cuts in December 2024 and two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the first half of 2025[19] - The Fed has revised its inflation expectations for 2024 upwards, acknowledging that economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace[15] - The combination of fiscal expansion, tax cuts, and targeted tariffs is expected to maintain inflationary pressures, making it difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates in the latter half of 2025[19]