产业经济年度策略：内外循环走向扩张

Core Views - China is accelerating globalization externally while expanding the service sector internally, with a focus on the Belt and Road Initiative, Hang Seng Tech, and leading service companies [4] - Four key trends to watch: service sector expansion, contraction of traditional manufacturing, self-reliance and manufacturing upgrades, and globalization through the Belt and Road Initiative [4] - China's economic expansion and globalization will benefit from increased foreign aid and cooperation, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative and capital goods exports [4] - Domestic demand expansion will drive both goods and service consumption, with service companies likely to benefit more from new consumption models [4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the long term, making RMB assets more attractive compared to USD assets, which face risks due to high inflation and real interest rates in the US [4] US Election Impact - The Republican Party's control of the US government may lead to three scenarios: aggressive deglobalization, contractionary deglobalization, or moderate deglobalization, each with different implications for China's globalization efforts [13] - The US is entering a period of centralized power, with the Republican Party controlling the presidency, Congress, and the Supreme Court, which could lead to increased economic uncertainty [15][20] - Internal conflicts in the US may intensify as the Republican Party aims to improve efficiency, potentially leading to a redistribution of interests and increased tensions [25] Japan's Globalization Experience - Japan's export share peaked in 1986, and its globalization was heavily influenced by the US, particularly during the Cold War when Japan was seen as a strategic partner in East Asia [46][50] - Japan's industrial upgrades in the 1970s and 1980s, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, led to trade conflicts with the US, culminating in the Plaza Accord in 1985 [50][51] - Japan's "Black Ship Reflux" plan, introduced after the Plaza Accord, aimed to balance international payments by using surplus funds to provide loans to developing countries, promoting yen internationalization [70][72] China's Globalization Path - China's manufacturing industry has a high degree of completeness, which has led to concerns from other countries as its trade surplus expands [131] - China's globalization strategy focuses on building a "community with a shared future for mankind," with a focus on mutual benefit and cooperation, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative [167] - China's foreign aid is primarily in the form of loans, with a focus on industrial, mining, and construction projects, as well as energy and transportation infrastructure [180][186] RMB Internationalization - The RMB's international payment share and trade financing share have increased significantly in recent years, with the RMB ranking fourth globally in international payments [220][221] - RMB-denominated international bonds have seen a significant increase in issuance, particularly in Asia, with RMB bonds accounting for about 11% of total issuance in 2023 [224][225] Investment Strategy - Key investment trends include the expansion of the service sector, contraction of traditional manufacturing, self-reliance and manufacturing upgrades, and globalization through the Belt and Road Initiative [231] - China's economic expansion and globalization will benefit from increased foreign aid and cooperation, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative and capital goods exports [231] - RMB assets are expected to outperform USD assets due to the RMB's stable or slightly rising exchange rate and the risks associated with high inflation and real interest rates in the US [231]