情绪与估值11月第4期：两融余额小幅下降，消费估值相对稳定

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight decrease in the margin balance of margin trading in the A-share market, with overall trading activity declining. The PE valuation percentiles of major indices have generally decreased, with the CSI 500 leading the decline. The PE valuation percentiles of major styles have also fallen, particularly in the cyclical style, while the media sector has seen a significant increase in valuation percentiles [4][5][6]. Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased, indicating a relatively high investment cost-effectiveness in equity investments. As of November 27, 2024, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 is 3.00%, while the 10-year government bond yield is 2.08%, resulting in a stock-bond yield of -0.92%, which is below the average since 2024 [14][17]. - The average margin balance for the week of November 21-27 was approximately 1.84 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous week. The proportion of financing purchases in total A-share trading volume also decreased, averaging 9.65%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [17][21]. - Trading activity has generally declined, with the CSI 300 experiencing the largest drop in trading volume, down 23.37% week-on-week. The turnover rates of major indices have also decreased, with the ChiNext index seeing the largest decline of 0.59 percentage points [21][22]. Group 3 - The PE valuation percentiles of major indices have generally declined, with the CSI 500 leading the drop at 4.7 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both fell by 2.8 percentage points [25][31]. - All major styles have seen a decline in PE valuation percentiles, with the cyclical style experiencing the largest drop of 3.4 percentage points. The growth style also saw a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [31][32]. - Most industry PE valuation percentiles have decreased, with the construction sector leading the decline at 6.8 percentage points. In contrast, the media sector saw an increase of 3.5 percentage points [41][43].