兴证军工观察：短期跟随市场波动，逢低布局2025

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the defense and military industry, suggesting to follow market fluctuations and accumulate positions on dips [2]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry index (CITIC) experienced a decline of 11.82% from November 11 to November 22, 2024, ranking second in terms of decline among 30 primary industry indices, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.46 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 6.01 percentage points [10]. - Key companies in the sector, such as Jieqiang Equipment and Zhenxin Technology, showed positive performance with increases of 11.02% and 7.60%, respectively, during the same period [10]. - A significant contract worth 285.6 billion yuan was signed at the recent China Airshow, involving 1,195 aircraft, marking a new high in aircraft numbers [11]. - The report anticipates a structural reversal in industry demand by 2025, with over 80% of equipment categories expected to maintain stable growth, particularly in military electronic components [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - The defense and military sector is currently in a weak phase, but the report indicates that the worst is over, with a demand turning point approaching as the "14th Five-Year Plan" enters a critical delivery phase [13][14]. 2. Market Performance - The CITIC defense and military index fell by 11.21% over the two weeks leading to November 22, 2024, underperforming compared to other indices [15]. - Year-to-date, the CITIC defense and military index has risen by 9.32%, slightly lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. 3. Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Jieqiang Equipment and Zhenxin Technology, which are positioned well in the nuclear protection and satellite internet sectors [10]. 4. Military Fund Review - The report does not provide specific details in this section. 5. Industry Dynamics - Recent events in the defense sector have been catalysts for market interest, including missile launches and military exercises, which have drawn attention amid changing geopolitical landscapes [12]. 6. Listed Company Dynamics - The report tracks new listings in the military sector, noting companies like Aerospace Hanyu and Guoke Military Industry, which have shown varying performance since their IPOs [22]. 7. Recent Key Reports - The report does not provide specific details in this section. 8. Financing Balance - The financing balance for the military sector has increased, with a current balance of 96.83 billion yuan, representing 3.63% of the sector's market value, which is higher than the overall A-share market [25].