策略深度报告20241130：12月度金股：“以我为主”的内需与科技

Group 1: Market Overview - November A-shares faced challenges due to a strong US dollar index affecting global liquidity and pressure on the RMB exchange rate[1] - Internal macroeconomic conditions showed weakness, with the "6+4+2 trillion" debt resolution policy leading to a policy vacuum[1] - External disturbances, particularly intensified trade policies under the Trump administration, contributed to market volatility[1] Group 2: December Outlook - Short-term confirmation of the dollar index and RMB exchange rate turning points remains uncertain, despite a long-term outlook favoring a decline in dollar rates[1] - Key policy meetings in December, including the Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference, will be critical for observing policy signals[2] - The importance of "domestic circulation" and expanding openness to non-US regions is expected to increase amid external uncertainties[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Focus on "domestic demand" and "technology self-reliance" as key investment themes for December, with an emphasis on cyclical opportunities in sectors supported by special bonds[2] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from increased prioritization of domestic supply chains, particularly in critical areas like chip manufacturing[2] - The report highlights a bullish outlook for sectors such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and aerospace information technology[2] Group 4: Key Stock Recommendations - Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH) with a market cap of 31.4 billion RMB, projected EPS of 0.27 in 2025 and PE of 35[3] - Ctrip Group (9961.HK) with a market cap of 343.8 billion RMB, projected EPS of 26.89 in 2025 and PE of 19[3] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ) with a market cap of 1,121.6 billion RMB, projected EPS of 14.02 in 2025 and PE of 18[3]