煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：封航导致库存攀升，大范围降温促煤价企稳反弹

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices did not experience a significant drop during the off-season in September and October, and have strong upward momentum entering the traditional peak season in late October, despite previous economic sluggishness [2] - The report highlights that the international standard coal price has risen to $153, which corresponds to approximately 930 RMB per ton for domestic 5500 kcal thermal coal, while current domestic coal prices are around 820 RMB, indicating strong upward momentum [2] - Economic stimulus policies are expected to enhance market expectations for macroeconomic stabilization and recovery, which will benefit overall demand recovery and strengthen the logic of tight coal supply, leading to continued upward momentum in coal prices [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3326.46 points, up 1.81% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 2.90 trillion RMB, a decrease of 13.63% [25] - The coal sector index closed at 2867.41 points, down 0.02% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 37.766 billion RMB, a decrease of 40.28% [25] 2. Domestic Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 29, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb decreased by 6 RMB/ton to 694 RMB/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou dropped by 50 RMB/ton to 1110 RMB/ton [31] 3. International Coal Prices - The Newcastle coal price index in Australia decreased by $1.52/ton to $139.45/ton as of November 22 [33] 4. Inventory and Supply - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim four port area was 1.809 million tons, a decrease of 6.53% from the previous week, while the average daily outflow was 1.529 million tons, down 15.47% [43] - The inventory in the Bohai Rim four port area increased to 31.088 million tons, up 6.34% from the previous week [47] 5. Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on domestic major routes increased by 2.57% to 42.96 RMB/ton as of November 29 [48] 6. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resource stocks, particularly thermal coal elastic targets such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are considered undervalued [50]