有色金属行业跟踪周报：市场开始交易海外通胀回落，贵金属资产价格回落，工业金属录得环比上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 0.61% in the week from November 25 to November 29, ranking last among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a slight increase of 0.05%, while precious metals dropped by 3.35% [1][65]. - Economic data indicates a reduction in overall inflation pressure in the U.S., leading to a decrease in the dollar index by 1.58% and a drop in the U.S. ten-year Treasury yield by 4.90%. This environment has contributed to a week-on-week increase in industrial metals [1][79]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, faced significant price corrections due to easing geopolitical tensions and a market shift towards declining inflation expectations [4][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged behind, down 0.61% [65]. - Among the sub-sectors, industrial metals increased by 0.05%, while precious metals fell by 3.35% [1][65]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - As of November 29, copper prices showed a slight increase, with LME copper at $9,015 per ton (up 0.47%) and SHFE copper at ¥73,830 per ton (up 0.09%) [2][84]. - Supply concerns arise as BHP forecasts a global copper supply gap of 10 million tons over the next decade, and Ecuador's copper exports may decline by approximately 20% due to operational issues [2][84]. - Demand remains stable due to domestic policies stimulating consumption, despite it being a traditional off-season [2][84]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell to ¥2,599 per ton (down 1.18%), and SHFE aluminum prices decreased to ¥20,390 per ton (down 0.15%) [3][92]. - Supply-side reductions are noted due to maintenance in Guangxi and Guizhou regions, while social inventory is increasing as shipping issues in Xinjiang ease [3][92]. Zinc - Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,109 per ton (up 4.59%) and SHFE zinc at ¥25,200 per ton (up 0.12%) [97]. - Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME zinc stock rising by 5.94% while SHFE zinc stock fell by 15.09% [97]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated, with inventory levels gradually decreasing [16]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly, with COMEX gold closing at $2,673.90 per ounce (down 1.63%) and SHFE gold at ¥618.80 per gram (down 1.45%) [4][79]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions and a shift in market focus towards declining inflation have contributed to the price drop [4][79].