2025年白酒行业年度策略：大河弯处，静水翻涛

Investment Rating - The report rates the liquor industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently in a transition phase between old and new cycles, resembling the characteristics of 2018-2019 rather than 2012-2015. The industry is expected to avoid annual negative growth [5][16] - Key indicators for observing changes in the liquor industry include the pricing of Moutai and the sales performance of Wuliangye. These indicators are crucial for assessing the industry's overall health [5][34] - Liquor companies with strong brands, healthy inventory, and reasonable growth targets are likely to navigate through the cycle more effectively [5][38] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The current phase is characterized by a transition between cycles, with the industry closer to the 2018-2019 phase, which involved short-term adjustments and growth rate changes. The industry is not expected to experience annual negative growth [5][16] - The economic environment shows signs of improvement, with retail and real estate data indicating a positive trend, which is beneficial for the liquor sector [6] - The industry is undergoing a de-stocking phase, with companies that actively manage their inventory and have strong channel control likely to fare better [6] Investment Recommendations - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2025 is seen as a critical test for the industry, with expectations that Moutai prices will not reach new lows. The report anticipates a structural bull market in liquor driven by policy catalysts [7][8] - Two main investment lines are recommended: companies with high momentum and those benefiting from low base recovery. High-end liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Moutai are highlighted for their strong performance [8][7] - Companies should focus on capturing market share in specific price segments and maintaining strategic focus during the adjustment period [7][8]