电解铝行业专题：不应求的矛盾即将凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The supply-demand imbalance in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to become more pronounced in the near future, with domestic production peaking in the next 1-2 years [1]. - The aluminum industry is characterized by rigid supply due to strict capacity indicators and limited flexibility in production processes, making it less susceptible to rapid changes compared to other sectors [1][15]. - The short-term profitability of the alumina industry is high, but long-term concerns exist due to potential oversupply as new low-cost production capacity comes online [1][36]. - The demand for aluminum is projected to grow significantly, driven by applications in various sectors, including real estate, where the impact of demand has already peaked [1][63]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply Changes - The total compliant capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is confirmed at 45.43 million tons, resulting from several regulatory actions and capacity adjustments over the years [14][15]. - The industry has undergone significant capacity migration to regions with lower electricity costs, such as Xinjiang and Yunnan, while maintaining strict compliance with capacity replacement policies [1][22]. Cost Evolution in Aluminum Smelting - Electricity costs are a major component of aluminum production costs, accounting for over 30% of total expenses, with significant variations across different producers [21][34]. - The report highlights the importance of energy costs in determining the competitiveness of aluminum production in various regions [21][35]. Alumina Industry Insights - The alumina market is currently experiencing high prices due to a shortage of low-cost production capacity, but this is expected to change as new capacity comes online [1][36]. - The long-term outlook for the alumina industry is concerning due to the declining domestic bauxite supply and the increasing reliance on imported materials, which may lead to higher costs [39][41]. Demand Side Analysis - The impact of the real estate sector on aluminum demand is diminishing, with new construction activity expected to stabilize rather than decline significantly [1][57]. - The report notes that the demand for aluminum in construction is closely linked to new project starts rather than completions, indicating a potential for stable demand despite fluctuations in the real estate market [1][63]. Supply-Demand Imbalance - The report anticipates that the demand for aluminum will continue to grow, particularly in emerging markets, while domestic production is expected to peak, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][63]. - The versatility of aluminum as a material is highlighted, with its applications expanding across various industries, further driving demand [1][63].