PMI点评：宏观类●消费刺激和抢出口小幅推升PMI

Group 1: PMI Overview - In November 2024, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 to 50.3, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months[1] - The new orders index increased significantly by 0.8 to 50.8, driven by consumer stimulus and a surge in export orders[1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI and consumer goods PMI rose by 1.1 and 1.3 to 51.2 and 50.8 respectively, indicating effective demand stimulation from consumption subsidies[1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - The production index increased by 0.4 to 52.4, reflecting a demand-driven supply response[1] - The finished goods inventory index slightly rebounded by 0.5 to 47.4, indicating a gradual recovery in production confidence[1] - The finished goods inventory remains at a historically low level, suggesting ongoing challenges in overall demand and industrial prices[1] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell by 0.7 to 49.7, marking a new low since 2012, as firms focus on replacing inefficient loans rather than stimulating new investments[1] - The service sector PMI remained stable at 50.1, but the new orders index dropped significantly by 1.4 to 46.4, indicating a cooling in service consumption demand[1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the manufacturing PMI improvement will largely depend on the upcoming central economic work conference's signals regarding fiscal expansion[1] - A general budget deficit rate exceeding 4% is necessary to effectively stimulate durable consumer demand and enhance production confidence in advanced manufacturing[1] - The forecast for 2025 includes a fiscal deficit rate of 4.2% and a larger scale of consumer subsidies between 400-500 billion[1]