2025年油服行业年度投资策略：景气持续，聚焦双海（海上、出海）

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil service industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil service industry is driven by both oil prices and energy security, indicating a sustained positive outlook [3] - The competitive landscape is characterized by an oligopoly in both global and Chinese markets, with a stable competitive structure in China [4] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that the return of Trump may benefit U.S. oil service exporters [5] Summary by Sections 2024 Oil Service Industry Review - The oil service industry's revenue growth is expected to slow down in 2024 compared to 2023 due to the lagging response to oil price fluctuations [10] Oil Price Fluctuations and Energy Security - Oil prices are currently at historical mid-high levels, with expectations of volatility. The Brent crude oil price was $71.1 on November 15, 2024, down 6.6% from the beginning of the year [6] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures are projected to increase, benefiting oil service companies, with expected expenditures of $603 billion, $663 billion, and $683 billion for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 4.5%, 10%, and 3.2% respectively [6] - China's oil service market is projected to reach ¥2,494 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4% from 2023 to 2030 [6] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese market is dominated by state-owned enterprises under the "Three Barrel Oil" group, which holds an 85% market share, while private enterprises account for 10% [7] - Globally, the top three companies dominate the market, with the top five firms holding approximately 28% market share [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on offshore oil services and overseas oil services, with key recommendations including Jerry Holdings, CNOOC Services, and others [7]