降息预期偏慢金价承压，短期供给宽松铝价偏弱运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are under pressure due to slow interest rate cut expectations, while aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to supply conditions [2]. - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience in U.S. inflation and a recovering job market, which may reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, impacting gold prices negatively [2]. - The report suggests that copper prices may experience upward elasticity due to macroeconomic expectations and demand resonance, despite short-term pressures from reduced rate cut urgency [2]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a general decline, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index dropping by 0.6% [23]. - Industrial metals increased by 0.1%, while precious metals fell by 3.3% [24]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report notes a decrease in global copper inventory to 549,000 tons, down by 29,100 tons from the previous week. The anticipated global copper supply gap of 10 million tons over the next decade is highlighted, with BHP planning to invest at least $11 billion in copper projects [2]. - Aluminum: The report indicates a stable operating capacity of 43.659 million tons for the electrolytic aluminum industry, with a slight reduction in production. The short-term supply-demand balance is expected to keep aluminum prices under pressure [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: The report mentions a slight decrease in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 78,000 yuan/ton, down by 1.9%. The supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [2]. - Silicon Metal: The report notes a total inventory of 652,800 tons, with supply-side reductions expected due to environmental regulations in Xinjiang. The demand remains stable, but the overall supply-demand balance has not shifted significantly [2]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chalco, and others for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [2].