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煤炭周报:日耗延续回升,煤价仍有支撑
Tebon Securities·2024-12-01 06:10

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that coal consumption continues to recover, and coal prices remain supported [2] - The expectation of a rebound in coal prices is driven by seasonal demand due to cold weather and stable non-electric demand [3] - The report highlights the potential for a price rebound in the coal market, with a strong support level around 800 RMB/ton for thermal coal [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.02% compared to a 1.8% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [120] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal has decreased to 818 RMB/ton, down 0.73% from the previous week [58][120] Price Analysis - Thermal coal prices have shown a downward trend, while coking coal prices have remained stable [58] - The report notes that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is stable at 1640 RMB/ton [64] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates an increase in railway coal input to Qinhuangdao Port, with a total of 602,000 tons, up 13.37% from the previous week [87] - The total inventory at major ports has increased, with southern ports showing a rise of 2.47% and northern ports increasing by 1.53% [94] Inventory Analysis - Qinhuangdao's coal inventory has decreased by 1.86% to 6.85 million tons, while key power plants' inventory has increased by 1.54% to 129.06 million tons [95] - The inventory of coking coal at 247 steel enterprises has increased by 0.04% to 7.44 million tons [101] International Market - International coal prices have seen a decline, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal priced at 87.5 USD/ton, down 0.34% [110] - The report notes a narrowing price gap between domestic and international coal prices, with the domestic thermal coal price gap at 39.47 RMB/ton [118] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality dividend stocks such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, and suggests attention to companies like Lu'an Energy and Pingmei Shenma [7]