涤纶长丝定期跟踪：10月开工率、产量环比提升，长丝库存同比有所下降

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - In October, the operating rate and production of polyester filament increased month-on-month, with a production volume of 3.9466 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.48% and a year-on-year growth of 1.26% [1][53] - The apparent consumption of polyester filament in October increased by 5.02% month-on-month, totaling approximately 3.5859 million tons, although it decreased by 1.16% year-on-year [2][57] - The inventory of polyester filament decreased year-on-year, with a monthly enterprise inventory of approximately 2.4189 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [4][78] - The export volume of polyester filament in October was 366,600 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 22.6% and a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [4][86] Supply - In October, the operating load rate for polyester filament was approximately 87.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78 percentage points but a month-on-month increase of 5.83 percentage points [1][54] - The cumulative production from January to October reached approximately 37.2148 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 8.34% [53] Demand - The textile and apparel retail sales in China from January to October accumulated to 1,157.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1% [2][66] - The operating rates of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces increased, with Zhejiang's rate at approximately 90% and Jiangsu's at about 68% as of October 31, 2024 [2][61] Inventory - The weekly inventory days for polyester filament were approximately 16.2 days as of October 31, 2024, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.3 days [4][78] Exports - The average export price for polyester filament in October was approximately 1,310.52 USD/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [4][86] Related Companies - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the polyester filament industry with a production capacity of 13 million tons and a diversified product matrix [5][90] - Xinfengming Group has a polyester filament capacity of 7.4 million tons and is expanding its PTA production capacity, expected to reach 10 million tons by mid-2026 [7][93]