电解铝行业专题：供不应求的矛盾即将凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to become prominent, with domestic production peaking in the next 1-2 years [1]. - The aluminum alloy material's performance is increasingly recognized, leading to a growing demand that was previously underestimated, particularly in the real estate sector [1]. - The alumina industry is experiencing short-term profits but faces long-term concerns due to potential oversupply as new low-cost production capacity comes online [1]. Industry Supply Changes - The electrolytic aluminum industry has a clear capacity indicator system, with a total compliant capacity of 45.43 million tons established through various regulatory measures [14][15]. - The production capacity is rigid due to the nature of the electrochemical process, which limits operational flexibility [1][19]. - The main production areas for electrolytic aluminum have shifted to regions with cheaper electricity, such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia [1][22]. Alumina Industry Insights - The alumina industry is currently benefiting from high prices due to reduced high-cost production and the upcoming launch of over 7 million tons of low-cost alumina capacity next year, which may lead to a return to historical price averages [1][36]. - The pricing model for alumina has shifted, with a significant portion of contracts now based on market indices rather than fixed ratios to aluminum prices [38][39]. Demand Side Analysis - The impact of the real estate sector on aluminum demand is weakening, with the peak drag from real estate demand likely having passed [1][55]. - The correlation between new construction starts and aluminum demand is stronger than that with completed projects, indicating a potential stabilization in demand despite fluctuations in real estate activity [1][57]. Future Outlook - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow significantly, driven by new applications and the increasing use of aluminum in various industries, including renewable energy [1][63]. - The report highlights that China's per capita aluminum demand is projected to reach 35.5 kg by 2024, surpassing historical peaks in the U.S. [1][63].