PMI点评（2024.11）：消费刺激和抢出口小幅推升PMI

Economic Indicators - In November 2024, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 to 50.3, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months[2] - The new orders index rose significantly by 0.8 to 50.8, driven by consumer stimulus and increased export orders[2] - The production index also increased by 0.4 to 52.4, indicating a demand-driven supply response[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 to 51.2, while consumer goods PMI increased by 1.3 to 50.8, reflecting the positive impact of consumption subsidies[2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI remained stable at 51.3, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell slightly by 0.1 to 49.2, highlighting a focus on improving consumer demand rather than short-term investment stimulation[2] Inventory and Future Outlook - The finished goods inventory index rose by 0.5 to 47.4, indicating a gradual recovery in production confidence amid consumer improvement and export competition[2] - The construction PMI dropped to 49.7, marking the first decline below 50 since 2012, suggesting a focus on replacing inefficient loans rather than stimulating new investments[2] - The forecast for 2025 includes a fiscal deficit rate of 4.2% and an expectation of expanded consumer subsidies in furniture and communication equipment sectors[2]