策略深度报告：12月度金股：“以我为主”的内需与科技

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the challenges faced by A-shares and H-shares in November, including the impact of the strong US dollar, weak domestic macroeconomic conditions, and external disturbances such as Trump's trade policies [1] - Looking ahead to December, the report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and technological self-reliance as key policy themes, with a focus on internal circulation and expanding openness to non-US regions [1] - The report suggests that the market will closely watch policy signals from the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, while external uncertainties, particularly US-China trade and tech tensions, will remain significant [1] Policy Expectations and Market Configuration - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors, particularly those related to infrastructure and new industries, as incremental policy signals are expected to be released during key meetings [2] - The "Two Heavy" and "Two New" sectors, supported by special bonds, are highlighted as areas of opportunity, with the potential for a "cross-year" market rally driven by policy expectations [2] - Technological self-reliance, especially in areas like chip manufacturing, is seen as a critical component of internal circulation, with innovation in sectors like new energy, AI, and aerospace expected to receive significant policy support [2] Recommended Stock Portfolio - The report provides a detailed list of recommended stocks across various sectors, including aerospace, electronics, commerce, food and beverage, and new energy, with financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios [3] - Key stocks include Aerospace Electronics, Hongrida, Trip.com Group, Yiwu Commodity City, Shede Liquor, CATL, Meyer Burger, Softpower, Tonghuashun, and SAIC Motor [3] Sector-Specific Insights Aerospace Electronics - Aerospace Electronics is expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial aerospace industrialization, breakthroughs in satellite link technology, and the expansion of the drone market, particularly in military and logistics applications [13][14][15] - The company's focus on high-growth areas like satellite internet and low-altitude economy is expected to drive future performance [13][14] Hongrida - Hongrida is positioned to capitalize on the recovery in its traditional business and the potential for domestic substitution in semiconductor heat sink materials, with projected revenue growth from 8 5 billion to 13 9 billion yuan by 2025 [19][20][21] Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group is expected to see strong recovery in domestic travel and growth in international travel, with adjusted net profit projected to increase from 16 7 billion to 20 1 billion yuan by 2026 [24][27][28] Yiwu Commodity City - Yiwu Commodity City is benefiting from the high growth of small commodity exports and the expansion of its global trade center, with rent increases and new business initiatives expected to drive profit growth [30][31][34][35] Shede Liquor - Shede Liquor is focusing on inventory adjustments and market expansion, with projected net profit growth from 9 2 billion to 11 9 billion yuan by 2026 [38][39][42] CATL - CATL is expected to maintain its leadership in the global battery market, with projected net profit growth from 50 2 billion to 75 6 billion yuan by 2026, driven by its cost and technological advantages [46][47][48] Meyer Burger - Meyer Burger is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of HJT technology in the solar industry, with its market leadership and technological advancements expected to drive growth [53][54][55] Softpower - Softpower is expected to benefit from the commercialization of the HarmonyOS ecosystem, with its position as a key player in the industry driving growth [61][62][63] Tonghuashun - Tonghuashun is expected to see growth in its C-end business due to increased market activity, with projected net profit growth from 14 4 billion to 19 0 billion yuan by 2026 [71][72][73] SAIC Motor - SAIC Motor is undergoing significant reforms, with a focus on intelligent competition and new energy vehicles, expected to drive future growth [78][79][80]