年度策略报告姊妹篇：2025年农林牧渔行业风险排雷手册

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the 2025 capital market will have "infinite scenery at the peak of danger," driven by tail risk resolution and monetary easing, leading to a pre-valuation uplift [3] - The report highlights the importance of addressing risks to better position for long positions, utilizing contrarian thinking to strengthen the 2025 annual strategy [7] Summary by Sections 1.1 2025 Swine Sector Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on three major changes, emphasizing "low cost" as a key factor [16] - The selected stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tiankang Biological, with expectations of significant profitability in 2025 [16] - Key assumptions include a slow recovery of breeding sow capacity over the next two quarters, which may keep swine supply stable and prices favorable [17] 1.2 2025 Poultry Sector Investment Strategy - The strategy indicates that yellow chicken prices are expected to rise, while white chicken is at a low valuation [22] - Recommended stocks include Lihua Agricultural and Yisheng Livestock, with assumptions based on the recovery of restaurant consumption and overall economic activity [22][24] 1.3 2025 Animal Health Sector Investment Strategy - The report suggests that low valuations will meet post-cycle recovery, with increased vaccine sales but limited price recovery [27] - Recommended stocks include Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological, focusing on high-end swine vaccines and strong competitive positions [27] 1.4 2025 Seed Industry Investment Strategy - The strategy notes a bottoming out of market conditions, with a focus on thematic and individual stock opportunities [37] - Key stocks to watch include Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, with assumptions regarding the expansion of genetically modified corn seed areas [37] Key Stock Risk Analysis - For Muyuan Foods, risks include lower-than-expected swine output and potential price drops, which could significantly impact profitability [50][52] - For Wens Foodstuff Group, similar risks apply, with a focus on monitoring swine output and price trends [53]