11月PMI的5大信号：难得需求连续改善

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November 2024 is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 50.1%, indicating continued expansion for the second consecutive month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.0%, with the service sector PMI unchanged and the construction sector PMI dropping by 0.7 percentage points[2] - The composite PMI output index remained stable at 50.8%, suggesting ongoing economic expansion, likely due to the effects of recent policy measures[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - The production index in the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4%, indicating a rebound in supply, while the new orders index increased by 0.8 percentage points to 50.8%, reflecting improved demand[2] - New export orders also increased by 0.8 percentage points to 48.1%, although they remain in contraction territory for the seventh consecutive month[2] - The employment indices for manufacturing, services, and construction sectors showed declines, indicating ongoing employment pressures despite improvements in small and medium enterprises[2] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The price index saw a slight decline, with expectations for November's PPI to be around -2.4%, an improvement from the previous -2.9%[2] - Inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods showed minor changes, with finished goods inventory rebounding slightly but still remaining low[2] - The overall economic recovery is supported by high-frequency data from sectors like real estate, infrastructure, and automotive consumption, indicating a broad-based recovery[2] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to exceed 5%, supporting the annual growth target of around 5%[2] - Key upcoming events include the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will set the policy direction for the following year[2] - Risks include potential unexpected changes in policy strength, external environment shifts, and statistical discrepancies[11]