有色行业周报：俄乌战事升级黄金价格反弹，强美元压制商品价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rebound in gold prices, but expectations of a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit further increases in gold prices. The market anticipates a 44% chance of a pause in rate cuts in December, up from 17% the previous week. Additionally, a strong US dollar is constraining gold's upward momentum. However, the long-term outlook remains positive for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [2][32]. - In the industrial metals sector, copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, which supports prices. The demand for copper is showing marginal improvement due to policies promoting upgrades and replacements. The aluminum sector is facing challenges due to rising alumina prices, which have negatively impacted electrolytic aluminum profits [3][5]. - The rare earth market is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand, despite ongoing supply disruptions from Myanmar [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index experienced a slight decline of 0.31% week-on-week, ranking 5th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the sector has seen an overall increase of 9.94% [19]. 2. Price and Inventory Performance 2.1 Precious Metals - COMEX gold closed at $2718.20 per ounce, up 5.87% week-on-week. COMEX silver rose to $31.405 per ounce, an increase of 3.53%. The gold-silver ratio reached 86.55, up 2.27% [31][32]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - Copper prices were reported at $8972.5 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.04%. Aluminum prices fell to $2630 per ton, down 1.26%. Copper inventories showed a slight increase, while aluminum inventories decreased [3][37]. 2.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.51%, reaching 79,100 yuan per ton, while hydroxide lithium prices rose by 1.05% to 67,900 yuan per ton [44]. 2.4 Minor Metals and New Materials - Prices for rare earth elements showed mixed results, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide down 2.38% and dysprosium oxide down 0.88%. Other minor metals also experienced varied price changes [4][56]. 3. Important News of the Week (2024.11.18-2024.11.24) - The European Parliament's Trade Committee Chairman indicated that the EU is close to reaching a tariff agreement with China regarding electric vehicles, reflecting ongoing adjustments in trade policies [70][72].