有色金属行业周报：宏观扰动加剧波动，供需紧缺支撑氧化铝价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights macroeconomic disturbances increasing volatility, with supply-demand tightness supporting alumina prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to experience price fluctuations in the short term due to concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions, while maintaining long-term investment value [17]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are projected to have strong price support due to a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations of rising prices driven by monetary easing and strong demand from the new energy sector [19][22]. - The lithium market is anticipated to remain oversupplied in 2024, with price adjustments needed for supply-demand rebalancing [23]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Weakness in US bonds and the dollar led to a pullback in gold prices, with geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [16]. - Industrial Metals: Supply constraints and macroeconomic policies are expected to support prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [18][22]. - New Energy Metals: Lithium prices are expected to decline, while the demand for lithium remains strong in the electric vehicle sector [23]. - Other Minor Metals: Prices are stable with demand-driven procurement [26]. 2. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.61%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [30]. - Notable stock performances included Oriental Zirconium (+14.62%) and Zhongyuan New Materials (-17.03%) [34]. 3. Major Events - Macroeconomic indicators show increasing expectations for inflation, with improvements in China's manufacturing PMI [42]. - The report notes significant developments in the copper and aluminum sectors, including new projects and production adjustments [46]. 4. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial metals are generally stable, with copper continuing to deplete inventories [19]. - Precious metals have seen price adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures, while minor metals are experiencing price fluctuations based on demand [26]. 5. Valuation - As of November 29, the non-ferrous metals industry has a PE ratio of 19.34, indicating relatively low valuations in the copper and aluminum sectors [36].