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汽车行业月度点评:以旧换新政策持续发力,10月乘用车销量同比增长10.7%
Caixin Securities·2024-12-01 19:32

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the automotive industry [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry has shown a significant recovery in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which reached record highs in October 2024. The overall automotive production and sales in October were 2.996 million and 3.053 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 7.2% and 8.7% [6][34]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies, such as the vehicle replacement subsidy and trade-in programs, which are expected to sustain growth in automotive sales through the fourth quarter [11][65]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: "Electrification," "Intelligentization," and "Globalization," suggesting that companies focusing on these areas will benefit from market trends and policy support [11][65]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive industry index outperformed the overall market from October 22 to November 21, 2024, with a growth of 7.06%, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.26 percentage points [28][30]. - The static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive sector is reported at 25.88 times, compared to 12.99 times for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [30]. Automotive Industry Data Tracking - In October, NEV production and sales reached 1.463 million and 1.430 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 48.0% and 49.6%, with a market share of 46.8% [6][34]. - The report notes that the overall automotive production and sales from January to October were 24.466 million and 24.624 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 2.7% [6][34]. Policy and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is implementing measures to expand automotive consumption, including promoting NEV usage in public sectors and enhancing support for technology innovation [54][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the government's vehicle replacement policies, which have led to a surge in subsidy applications, indicating strong consumer demand [11][64].