原油周报：OPEC+或可能推迟增产支撑油价

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil processing industry as "Positive" [2]. Core Views - The report suggests that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with some oil-producing countries shifting from a market share competition strategy to a price-supporting strategy. The U.S. shale oil production faces limitations due to resource degradation and inflationary cost pressures, while OPEC+ maintains a strong willingness and ability to support high oil prices. The global oil supply-demand balance remains tight, indicating that oil prices are likely to stay at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 29, 2024, international oil prices experienced fluctuations and declines, with Brent and WTI prices at $71.84 and $68.00 per barrel, respectively. This decline was influenced by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and unexpected increases in U.S. gasoline inventories [2][13]. Oil Price Outlook - The report emphasizes that the long-term production capacity of U.S. shale oil is limited, and OPEC+ has a strong capacity to control prices through production adjustments. Despite economic slowdowns and energy transitions, global oil demand is expected to grow from 2024 to 2026, maintaining upward pressure on prices [14][15]. Oil Supply - As of November 22, 2024, U.S. crude oil production was 13.49 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 290,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs decreased to 477 [2][19]. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing increased to 16.295 million barrels per day as of November 22, 2024, with a utilization rate of 90.50% [2][19]. Oil Inventory - As of November 22, 2024, U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 819 million barrels, a decrease of 672,000 barrels (-0.08%) from the previous week. Strategic oil reserves increased by 1.172 million barrels (+0.30%) [2][19]. Performance of Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a 0.75% increase as of November 29, 2024, with upstream companies showing significant gains since 2022, including a 163.53% increase in the oil and gas extraction sector [17][18].