宏观策略跟踪周报：利好政策预期升温，关注券商及科技成长

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81% to close at 3326.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.66% to 10611.72 points during the week of November 25-29[3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14905.43 billion CNY, a decrease of 10.54% from the previous week[3] - The small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 500 index rising by 1.77%[3] Economic Indicators - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 7.2332, down by 0.17%[3] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, indicating expansion for two consecutive months[22] - The industrial profits for October showed a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, but this was an improvement from the previous month's decline of 27.1%[25] Policy Outlook - Expectations for favorable policies are rising ahead of the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which are anticipated to influence market trends[4] - The central bank has net purchased government bonds worth 200 billion CNY in November, continuing a trend of liquidity support[26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on individual stocks rather than indices, with an emphasis on structural opportunities in technology and self-sufficiency sectors[4] - Key areas of interest include semiconductor, AI applications, and brokerage firms, which are expected to remain active as market conditions evolve[4] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating Sino-US relations[5]