策略周观点：结束震荡的条件

Group 1 - The core foundation of the bull market, including policy turning points and supply-demand turning points in the stock market, still exists. However, the market has entered a consolidation phase with a significant decrease in trading volume. Investors are concerned about when this consolidation will end, referencing the experiences from the bull markets of 2014-2015 and 2020-2021 [10][11][19]. - If the current market is a profit-driven bull market, profit indicators will continue to rise during the consolidation phase. For instance, the PMI and BCI indices showed significant recovery during the consolidation period of July to September 2020. Conversely, if it is a liquidity-driven bull market, certain types of resident funds will see substantial inflows during the consolidation phase, as evidenced by the rapid growth of financing balances from December 2014 to January 2015 [10][11][19]. - Currently, there are signs of improvement in both profits and incremental funds, indicated by the recovery of the PMI and growth in ETFs. However, the momentum is still weak, suggesting that the current consolidation may take some time to resolve [10][11][19]. Group 2 - Conditions for ending the consolidation phase during the July to September 2020 period included sustained profit realization and significant growth in public fund sizes. The bull market from 2019 to 2021 was profit-driven, and during the consolidation phase in 2020, both profits and incremental funds showed clear improvement [11][12][19]. - The conditions for ending the consolidation phase from December 2014 to January 2015 involved continuous growth in margin financing. During this period, the financing balance increased rapidly despite a decline in trading volume, indicating strong liquidity support [11][12][19]. - Recent economic data has shown improvement compared to late 2014, but the recovery in financing balances has been weaker than in 2014, with no further growth observed since late November [11][12][19]. Group 3 - The current market is viewed as a consolidation phase within a bull market, with discussions around whether year-end policies can exceed expectations. Observations of economic changes and incremental funds are crucial to determine if a significant shift will occur [19][21]. - Recent economic indicators, including PMI, exports, and second-hand real estate sales, have shown slight recovery, but the strength of this recovery is limited. The focus will be on whether policy implementation can lead to noticeable changes in social financing and credit data [19][21]. - Short-term strategies suggest that while the bull market continues, the pace may slow due to changes in the supply-demand structure of the stock market, particularly with the recovery of resident enthusiasm. The inflow of resident funds is not as rapid as during the 2014-2015 bull market [21][24].