银行业市场利率定价自律机制11月工作会议点评：强化同业存款利率自律影响如何？

Industry Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The report discusses the impact of the Market Interest Rate Self-Discipline Mechanism's November meeting, focusing on the optimization of non-bank interbank deposit rate self-discipline management and the introduction of a "rate adjustment floor clause" in deposit service agreements [3] - The policy aims to address the high interbank deposit rates, which have not followed the downward trend of OMO rates, creating inefficiencies in monetary policy transmission [4] - The report highlights the significant growth in non-bank deposits, which increased by 5.7 trillion yuan from January to October 2024, compared to a 5 trillion yuan increase in the same period last year, while household and corporate deposits grew by 8.3 trillion yuan, 9 trillion yuan less than the average of the past five years [5] - The policy is expected to improve the net interest margin (NIM) of banks by 2 basis points, benefiting the banking sector [13] Summary by Sections Section 1: High Non-Bank Interbank Deposit Rates - Non-bank interbank deposit rates are currently high and need systematic reduction [4] - The policy aims to align these rates with the OMO rate, which was reduced by 20 basis points to 1.5% in October, but interbank deposit rates remained around 1.75% [4] - Non-bank deposits have grown significantly, with a 5.7 trillion yuan increase from January to October 2024, compared to a 5 trillion yuan increase in the same period last year [5] Section 2: Impact on Short-Term Rates - The policy will push short-term interbank deposit rates closer to the policy rate, improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [9] - Financial infrastructure institutions' interbank deposits will be adjusted to reflect the excess reserve rate (0.35%), while other non-bank interbank deposits will be adjusted to reflect the 7-day OMO rate (1.5%) [9][10] - The policy also regulates the pricing behavior of early withdrawals from interbank term deposits, setting the rate no higher than the excess reserve rate (0.35%) [11] Section 3: Improvement in Bank NIM - The reduction in non-bank interbank deposit rates is expected to improve the NIM of banks by 2 basis points [13] - Based on data from 18 sample banks, the policy could reduce interest expenses by 300-600 billion yuan, improving the NIM by 1.1-2.2 basis points [14] - The neutral assumption is a 30 basis point reduction in interbank deposit rates, reducing interest expenses by 450 billion yuan and improving the NIM by 2 basis points [14] Section 4: Introduction of Rate Adjustment Floor Clause - The introduction of a "rate adjustment floor clause" in deposit service agreements aims to ensure that banks adjust rates in sync with market changes, reducing interest rate risk and stabilizing NIM [17] - This clause will help banks reflect policy changes more quickly and reduce the movement of deposits between banks [17]