海运视角看造船：供给篇：有远虑，无近忧

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on global leading shipbuilding companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and China Power [3] Core Views - The report focuses on the supply side of the shipbuilding industry, analyzing future capacity expansion and its impact on the industry's supply-demand balance [3][6] - By 2030, global shipbuilding capacity is expected to increase by 26% to 55.35 million CGT, with capacity utilization remaining above 95% due to sustained demand [3][7] - The report highlights that the shipbuilding industry's supply elasticity is a key concern, driven by government tax incentives and shipyard competitiveness [6][7] Supply Expansion Drivers - Local governments are motivated to support shipyard restarts and expansions due to economic pressures and the need for tax revenue growth [6][48] - Leading shipyards are incentivized to expand capacity to maintain competitiveness in order delivery timelines, as their current capacity is saturated [6][53] Capacity Expansion Methods - Restarting old shipyards is the most direct and effective way to increase capacity, especially given the scarcity of port shoreline resources [7][58] - Capacity expansion is primarily focused on high-value-added ship types, with new shipyards expected to contribute 13% of the total capacity increase by 2030 [7][80] Capacity Utilization and Industry Outlook - Short-term demand is driven by container ships and LNG carriers, with oil and bulk carriers expected to sustain demand in the medium term [7][85] - By 2030, cumulative new shipbuilding orders are projected to reach 358 million CGT, maintaining high capacity utilization rates [7][116] - The aging fleet and stricter IMO environmental regulations will continue to drive demand for new shipbuilding orders [109][110] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading global shipbuilding companies, as the industry's high capacity utilization and sustained demand indicate continued growth [3][119]