交通运输行业2025年投资策略：乍暖还寒，胜而求战

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the transportation sector is Buy [4] Core Views - The transportation sector in 2024 experienced a weak reality, with most sub-sectors seeing a decline in ROE due to economic cyclicality [1] - The market remains sensitive to marginal changes in fundamentals, with most transportation assets priced at historically low valuations, below the 50th percentile of the 2015-2024 range [1] - For 2025, the report highlights three key investment themes: 1. Strong expectation diffusion: Sectors like aviation, chemical logistics, and integrated logistics are expected to see valuation recovery, especially those with lower valuation percentiles and improving fundamentals [1] 2. Weak reality improvement: Sectors with supply-side improvements, such as integrated logistics and dry bulk shipping, are more likely to be accepted by the market [1] 3. Foreign trade risk management: Structural opportunities exist in export-related sectors, including potential export rush opportunities in Q1-Q2 2025 and the "Belt and Road" initiative [1] Sector Summaries Logistics - Fundamentals: The logistics sector in 2024 showed resilience, with volume growth but price declines in competitive segments like express delivery and domestic chemical shipping [91] - Valuation: Most logistics companies are undervalued, reflecting weak market expectations, with some sectors like chemical logistics and integrated logistics showing potential for recovery [111] - Investment Strategy: Focus on sectors with strong expectation diffusion and structural opportunities in foreign trade, particularly in chemical logistics and integrated logistics [114] Aviation and Airports - Fundamentals: Aviation demand remained resilient in 2024, with domestic passenger traffic recovering to 111.4% of 2019 levels, while international traffic recovered to 86.1% [123] - Valuation: Large airlines are leading the valuation recovery, with PB valuations above the 70th percentile, while smaller airlines and airports remain undervalued [156] - Investment Strategy: Prefer large airlines for cyclical recovery and smaller airlines for valuation repair and growth realization, while monitoring airport non-aviation business recovery [158] Shipping - Fundamentals: Shipping sectors like dry bulk and oil tankers face supply-side constraints, with demand-side improvements still uncertain [1] - Valuation: Shipping valuations are at historical lows, with potential for recovery in sectors like chemical shipping and dry bulk [1] - Investment Strategy: Focus on sectors with supply-side improvements and structural opportunities in foreign trade, particularly in chemical shipping and dry bulk [1] Infrastructure - Fundamentals: Infrastructure sectors like highways and ports are experiencing volume-price divergence, with demand-side recovery still pending [1] - Valuation: Infrastructure assets are undervalued, with defensive attributes becoming more prominent [1] - Investment Strategy: Invest in high-quality infrastructure assets and monitor value recovery in individual stocks [1] Key Companies - Haitong Development (603162.SH): Rated as Overweight with a target price of CNY 10.12 [9] - China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH): Rated as Overweight with a target price of CNY 8.30 [9] - Spring Airlines (601021.SH): Rated as Overweight with a target price of CNY 71.43 [9] - China Southern Airlines (600029.SH): Rated as Overweight with a target price of CNY 9.68 [9] - China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH): Rated as Overweight with a target price of CNY 4.62 [9]