煤炭开采行业周报：价格寻底阶段，估值驱动优先

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently in a price bottoming phase, with valuation-driven investments prioritized. The report highlights that while coal prices are under pressure, there are multiple positive factors accumulating in the sector, suggesting a potential turnaround [4][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC coal index stood at 3,631.10 points, down 0.05%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.36 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sector performance [4]. - Thermal coal prices have shown a slowdown in decline, with the North Port thermal coal price at 827 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][38]. - The report notes that while power plant daily consumption is seasonally increasing, overall demand remains moderate, and inventory levels are still high, leading to weak purchasing enthusiasm from downstream users [4][40]. Key Areas of Analysis - Thermal Coal: The market remains weak, with supply tightening slightly and demand primarily driven by essential needs. The report anticipates limited downward price movement due to high inventory levels and stable production [4][17]. - Coking Coal: The market is characterized by weak sentiment, with prices at historical lows. The report suggests that the market may shift from "weak reality, strong expectations" to "strong reality, strong expectations," potentially boosting coking coal prices in the medium term [4][41]. - Coke: The report indicates that while coke production remains stable, demand is primarily driven by necessity, with inventory levels continuing to accumulate. The overall market is expected to remain weak [4][63]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a shift in investment focus from net profit growth to return on investment, highlighting the importance of free cash flow in capital market pricing mechanisms. It recommends several companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, as key investment opportunities [4][7]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report lists several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a 2024E EPS of 3.02 CNY and a PE of 13.25 [7]. - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) with a 2024E EPS of 2.16 CNY and a PE of 10.79 [7]. - New Energy (601918.SH) with a 2024E EPS of 0.84 CNY and a PE of 9.03 [7]. - Additionally, Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH) is rated as "Overweight" with a focus on its share repurchase plan [4][7].