基础化工行业周报：SAF远期空间可期，持续关注板块机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several companies in the SAF sector, including 嘉澳环保, 鹏鹞环保, and 海新能科 [6]. Core Insights - The SAF sector is expected to see significant growth due to recent policy support from the Chinese government and international regulations mandating the use of sustainable aviation fuel [3][4]. - The demand for SAF is projected to increase from over 500,000 tons in 2023 to 1.5 million tons in 2024, with a long-term target of 14 million tons by 2030 [3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is anticipated to lower domestic raw material prices, enhancing the profitability of companies producing biodiesel and SAF [4]. Summary by Sections SAF Sector Developments - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to boost renewable energy supply, including biofuels like biodiesel and SAF, which are crucial for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector [2][3]. - The EU has set mandatory blending targets for SAF, starting at 2% in 2025 and increasing to 70% by 2050, which is expected to drive global demand [3]. Market Dynamics - The cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO is likely to shift more supply to the domestic market, potentially lowering prices and increasing competition [4]. - The current market price for UCO is expected to drop from $900 per ton to around $800 per ton, benefiting domestic SAF producers [4]. Company Focus - Key companies to watch in the SAF sector include 嘉澳环保 (planned capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to start production in December 2024), 鹏鹞环保 (100,000 tons capacity with a 55% SAF yield), and 海新能科 (5,000 tons capacity with an additional 200,000 tons expected in Q2 2025) [4].