BOSIDENG(HK:03998) Huafu Securities·2024-12-02 01:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in its down jacket business, with a focus on enhancing channel quality and expanding product categories to meet changing consumer demands [3][4]. - The financial forecasts predict significant revenue and profit growth, with expected net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.20 billion, and 4.78 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.5, 9.9, and 8.7 [2][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Main revenue for 2023A was 16.77 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 23.21 billion RMB in 2024A, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [2]. - The net profit for 2023A was 2.14 billion RMB, expected to rise to 3.07 billion RMB in 2024A, marking a growth rate of 44% [2]. - The company’s gross margin for FY25H1 was 49.9%, with a slight decrease attributed to rising raw material costs and changes in product mix [3][4]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment led revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, while the women's clothing segment saw a decline of 21.5% [3]. - The company has optimized its store count, reducing the number of stores while enhancing the quality of its retail channels, resulting in improved operational efficiency [3][4]. - Inventory levels increased by 53.4% year-on-year, attributed to proactive raw material procurement and a slowdown in distributor shipments [4]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 3.62 billion RMB, 4.20 billion RMB, and 4.78 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, maintaining the previous profit estimates [4]. - The company is expected to continue innovating its product lines, including functional apparel, to adapt to evolving consumer preferences [4].