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知乎：24Q3大幅减亏，社区生态优化
ZHZHIHU(ZH) 广发证券·2024-12-02 01:20

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhihu (ZH) with a target price of 4.87perADS[5][17]CoreViews−Zhihuachievedsignificantlossreductionin24Q3,withthelowestquarterlylosssinceitsIPO[2][3]−Thecompany′scommunityecosystemhasbeenoptimized,withcoreuserhealthmetricssteadilyimproving[3]−Zhihu′s24Q3grossmarginreached63.94.87 per ADS [5][17] Core Views - Zhihu achieved significant loss reduction in 24Q3, with the lowest quarterly loss since its IPO [2][3] - The company's community ecosystem has been optimized, with core user health metrics steadily improving [3] - Zhihu's 24Q3 gross margin reached 63.9%, a YoY increase of 10.26 percentage points [3] - The company has implemented cost-saving measures across sales, R&D, and management expenses [3] - Zhihu's average MAU recovered to 81.1 million in 24Q3, showing a QoQ growth of 0.6% [3] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 24Q1-Q3 revenue reached RMB 2.74 billion, a YoY decrease of 10.48% [2] - 24Q3 revenue was RMB 845 million, a YoY decrease of 17.33% [2] - 24Q3 net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB 10 million, a significant reduction from the previous year [2] - Adjusted net loss for 24Q3 was RMB 13 million, showing a substantial improvement [2] Business Segments - Marketing services revenue in 24Q3 was RMB 257 million, a YoY decrease of 32.99% [3] - Paid membership revenue reached RMB 459 million in 24Q3, with monthly paying members increasing to 16.5 million [3] - Vocational training revenue was RMB 105 million in 24Q3, with self-operated courses showing growth [3] Cash Position - As of 24Q3, Zhihu held cash and cash equivalents of RMB 5.048 billion [3] - The company completed a share repurchase program, buying back 33.02 million Class A ordinary shares [3] Future Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 3.555 billion, RMB 3.055 billion, and RMB 3.229 billion respectively [3][12] - Net loss is expected to decrease from RMB 272 million in 2024 to RMB 23 million in 2026 [3] - Average MAU is forecasted to be 830 million, 830 million, and 850 million for 2024-2026 [11] - Marketing service revenue is projected to be RMB 1.233 billion, RMB 1.048 billion, and RMB 1.079 billion for 2024-2026 [11] - Paid membership revenue is expected to reach RMB 1.740 billion, RMB 1.589 billion, and RMB 1.724 billion in 2024-2026 [11] Valuation - The report values Zhihu at 1x PS for 2025, resulting in a fair value estimate of 4.87 per ADS [17] - The current PS ratio is 0.68x for 2024, 0.79x for 2025, and 0.75x for 2026 [17]