HAOYANG(300833) 国投证券·2024-12-02 00:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy - A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 60.17 CNY for the next six months [3][4]. Core Insights - The concert industry remains highly prosperous, with leading players like Live Nation expanding aggressively into overseas markets. Live Nation's concert schedule for Q3 2024 reached 12,800 shows, a 6% year-on-year increase, and its revenue for the same period was 14.447 billion USD, up 4.02% year-on-year [1][2]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards experiential consumption is driving growth in the concert industry, with global revenues from the top 100 touring concerts reaching a historical high of 5.7 billion USD, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 1.277 billion CNY, 1.482 billion CNY, and 1.712 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.15%, 16.05%, and 15.55% [3][10]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 346 million CNY, 435 million CNY, and 500 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of -5.52%, 25.60%, and 15.03% [3][10]. - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.3x for 2024, decreasing to 12.0x by 2026 [3][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized for its leading technology and scarce resources, particularly its association with the well-known European and American brand Arden, which positions it favorably in the market [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacity, contributing to long-term growth [3]. Market Data - As of November 29, 2024, the company's stock price was 47.48 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 6.006 billion CNY [4]. - The stock has experienced a price range of 35.72 CNY to 112.0 CNY over the past 12 months [4]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a relative return of 20.4% over one month and 3.6% over three months, while the absolute return over 12 months is -54.8% [6]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to be 27.1% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% [10].