医药行业2024年12月月报：依然推创新，但更强调被忽视的变化

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as Positive [1] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of overlooked changes in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from marginal policy impacts such as medical insurance prepayment and commercial insurance strengthening, which will drive attention towards the sector [5] - The report suggests that mid-level policies like fiscal-friendly policies will be more sensitive to market movements, and the industry is likely in a bottoming phase [5] - Short-term recommendations focus on upstream pharmaceutical sectors including life sciences, CXO, and APIs, while stable sectors include large infusion, CNS drugs, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and pharmaceutical distribution [5] Monthly Review (November 2024) - Pharmaceutical Index Performance: The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 2.31% in November 2024, outperforming the CSI 300, which rose by 0.66% [3][11] - Sub-sector Performance: - Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Decoction Pieces saw the highest increase at 15.7%, followed by Pharmaceutical Distribution at 8.0%, and Chemical Preparations at 5.2% [16] - Medical Services was the only sub-sector to decline, dropping by 0.5% [16] - Top Performers: - Haooubo led with a 244.2% increase, followed by Rejing Bio at 77.0%, and Doctor Glasses at 55.1% [21] - Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical was the worst performer, declining by 38.6% [21] - Valuation Changes: - The overall PE ratio of the pharmaceutical sector stood at 27.81x as of November 30, 2024, up by 0.72 from October 31, 2024 [28] - The valuation premium of the pharmaceutical sector relative to the CSI 300 increased to 135%, up by 4.3% from the previous month [28] December 2024 Industry Outlook - Innovative Drugs and Devices: The report is optimistic about overlooked segments in innovative drugs and devices, driven by medical insurance prepayment and commercial insurance strengthening [36] - Upstream Pharmaceutical Sectors: Life sciences, CXO, and APIs are recommended as offensive plays, while large infusion, CNS drugs, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and pharmaceutical distribution are seen as stable plays [36] Sub-sector Analysis Innovative Drugs - Industry Changes: The 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List adjustment saw 89 out of 117 new drugs successfully negotiated, with an average price reduction of 63% [38] - Recommendations: - Beta Pharma: Expected to benefit from the commercialization of Befotini and Ensartinib [38] - Rongchang Bio: Positive outlook on Telitacicept and Vedotin [38] - Kelun Pharma: Growth driven by innovative drugs and synthetic biology [38] Generic Drugs - Industry Changes: The 10th batch of centralized procurement rules tightened, with stricter qualification requirements and reduced number of入围企业 [40] - Recommendations: - Humanwell Healthcare: Strong growth in CNS drugs [40] - Jiudian Pharmaceutical: Continued growth in Loxoprofen and gel patches [40] APIs - Industry Changes: The API sector is in a bottoming phase, with some companies entering a restocking phase [43] - Recommendations: - Guobang Pharma: Strong performance in veterinary APIs [43] - Xianju Pharma: Growth in steroid hormone APIs [43] CXO - Industry Changes: The CXO sector is showing signs of operational improvement, with order growth and capacity utilization improving [45] - Recommendations: - WuXi AppTec: Strong order growth in TIDES and small molecule CDMO [45] - Tigermed: Steady growth in MNC orders and biotech MRCT demand [45] Scientific Services - Industry Changes: The scientific services sector rose by 5.0% in November, outperforming the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index by 2.7% [48] - Recommendations: - Bide Pharm: Strong growth potential in overseas markets [48] - Haier Bio: Improved profitability and operational efficiency [48] Pharmaceutical Distribution - Industry Changes: The distribution sector rose by 8.0% in November, outperforming the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index by 5.7% [50] - Recommendations: - Shanghai Pharma: Improved operational quality and profitability [50] - Jiuzhitang: Strong growth in CSO and medical device distribution [50] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - Industry Changes: The TCM price index has been declining since July 2024, easing gross margin pressure [53] - Recommendations: - Dong-E-E-Jiao: Strong growth in tonic products [53] - Lingrui Pharma: Stable growth in orthopedic patches [53] Medical Devices - Industry Changes: The medical device sector is expected to benefit from insurance reimbursement and innovation-driven growth [56] - Recommendations: - Xinhua Medical: Strong growth in state-owned enterprise reform [56] - BGI Genomics: Rapid growth in new sequencing products [56] Chain Pharmacies - Industry Changes: The pharmacy sector is undergoing industry consolidation, with market share concentration increasing [59] - Recommendations: - Yifeng Pharmacy: Strong growth in OTC drugs and prescription drugs [59] - Dashenlin: High profitability in ginseng-based products [59]