Zijin Mining(601899) 天风证券·2024-12-02 03:34Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, targeting a price of 19.5 CNY per share based on a 2025 PE of 14x [6][216]. Core Views - The company has transformed from a local mining enterprise into a global mining giant over 30 years, with significant investments in 17 provinces in China and 15 countries abroad, becoming the largest producer of copper, gold, and zinc in China [1][19]. - The company aims to achieve its key economic indicators for 2030 two years ahead of schedule by 2028, continuing its path towards becoming a top-tier international mining group [1][39]. - The company possesses a diverse portfolio of world-class mining assets, including copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum, with significant resource reserves [2][73]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through three distinct phases: initial development (1993-2002), national expansion (2003-2012), and global outreach (2013-2022) [19][21]. - As of the first half of 2024, the company holds rights to substantial resources: 80.75 million tons of copper, 3.051 million tons of gold, and 1.347 million tons of lithium equivalent [2][19]. Core Competitiveness - The company emphasizes technological innovation as a key driver of its competitive advantage, with a focus on low-cost mining and resource management [3][120]. - The "Five Rings Integration" mining engineering management model has been pivotal in optimizing operations and reducing costs [3][120]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper and gold prices, with expectations of a "Davis Double" effect on profitability and stock performance [4][130]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% for copper and 9.1% for gold production from 2023 to 2028 [2][41]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 293.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 390.7 billion CNY by 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 21.1 billion CNY to 41.4 billion CNY over the same period [5][209]. - The company’s profitability is driven primarily by its copper and gold segments, which are expected to maintain strong margins [67][210]. Investment Strategy - The company plans to enhance its production capacity across various segments, including copper, gold, zinc, and lithium, with specific projects aimed at increasing output significantly by 2028 [39][209]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on low-cost acquisitions and resource exploration to bolster its asset base [126][127].