宏观经济宏观周报：11月国内建筑业增长放缓但制造业延续回升势头

Economic Overview - In November, the domestic construction industry showed signs of slowing growth, with the construction PMI falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from October, marking the first time below the critical point since March 2020[14] - Conversely, the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, remaining above the critical threshold, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing sector[14] Investment Trends - The decline in construction-related investment activities is primarily attributed to a temporary pullback in real estate investment amid inventory reduction, despite ongoing improvements in real estate sales since October[14] - The current macroeconomic expansion index indicates a slight downturn, suggesting a decrease in economic growth momentum represented by real estate and infrastructure[15] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 2.0% month-on-month in November, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by 0.1%, leading to an overall CPI decline of about 0.5% month-on-month[15] - The PPI is anticipated to show a month-on-month change of approximately zero, with a year-on-year increase to -2.6%[15] Market Predictions - The forecast for the ten-year government bond yield indicates an upward trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to decline in the upcoming week[15] - The current low domestic interest rates and high Shanghai Composite Index suggest a significant deviation from the fundamental economic conditions captured by the macroeconomic expansion index[15]