农林牧渔行业投资策略月报：12月旺季猪价有望反弹，行业政策密集期即将到来

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The average price of live pigs in November 2024 is 16.5 CNY/kg, a decrease of 6.2% month-on-month but an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. The price is expected to rebound as the winter consumption season approaches [28][29]. - The report highlights that the breeding industry is experiencing a cautious expansion, with a slight increase in the number of breeding sows. The overall industry outlook remains optimistic due to low historical valuations and potential recovery in pig prices [28][29]. - In the poultry sector, the prices of broiler chickens and chicks have increased by 2.6% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a potential recovery trend [28][29]. - The feed and animal health sectors are seeing stable demand, with a slight increase in feed requirements due to rising livestock numbers. The report suggests that leading companies in these sectors are well-positioned for growth [28][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In November 2024, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points, with a decline of 0.3% in the sector compared to a 0.7% increase in the index [17]. Livestock Breeding - The average profit from self-breeding pigs in November is approximately 204.9 CNY per head, a decrease of 101.4 CNY from the previous month but an increase of 439.7 CNY year-on-year. The average loss from purchasing piglets is 42.7 CNY per head, reflecting a significant decline [28][29]. - The report notes that the number of breeding sows has increased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a gradual recovery in production capacity [28]. Raw Materials - The prices of major raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn prices decreasing by 1.3% month-on-month and soybean meal prices increasing by 0.3% [28]. Animal Health - The recovery in pig breeding is expected to boost demand for animal health products, with leading companies actively expanding into pet healthcare, opening new growth opportunities [28]. Pet Food - The total sales of pet food during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 reached 5.9 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 23%. Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with a focus on overseas export growth [28].