金属、非金属与采矿行业：看好能源金属板块回调配置机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the energy metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic bullish outlook on energy metal equities, particularly lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals for lithium in the medium to long term [5][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of real downstream replenishment dynamics to support price increases, suggesting that rapid price rises could hinder the recovery of supply-demand fundamentals [5]. - The report notes that the current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historical high, reflecting cautious economic expectations in the commodity market [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, while the metals and mining sector underperformed, declining by 0.25% [14]. - The report indicates that the basic non-ferrous metals sector saw a slight increase of 0.26%, while the energy metals sector decreased by 0.33% [16]. Price Movements - Recent price movements show LME three-month copper increased by 0.5% to $9,015 per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by 1.2% to $2,599 per ton [23]. - The report notes that SHFE three-month copper rose by 0.1% to 73,830 yuan per ton, and SHFE three-month aluminum fell by 0.1% to 20,390 yuan per ton [25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses successful destocking of copper and aluminum, with copper inventories decreasing by 4.65% week-on-week and aluminum inventories increasing by 0.32% [5][25]. - It highlights that the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum has already been reflected in previous price fluctuations, suggesting limited future impact [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on lithium companies with significant resource advantages and strong growth potential, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [5]. - For cobalt and nickel, it suggests monitoring the impact of policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo on supply dynamics [5]. - The report also advises attention to rare earth companies due to supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions in Myanmar [5]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the energy metals sector presents attractive investment opportunities, particularly in light of improving fundamentals and strategic positioning in response to policy shifts [5].