房地产行业周度观点更新：估值的“锚”是什么？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Insights - The true net assets of real estate companies are the starting point for discussing valuations, fundamentally reflecting asset quality issues. Inventory impairment is a one-time assessment of asset quality, while NAV is a revaluation under assumed development logic, showing no substantial difference. The industry is entering a mature phase where the contribution of growth factors to valuation is relatively limited, with the core focus being on profitability and risk. If housing prices stabilize within the current range, it indicates that the pressure of further inventory impairment for real estate companies is largely eliminated, although the enhancement of net assets from ongoing projects is also relatively limited. The book net assets can generally be regarded as the "anchor" for valuation. Future new projects can yield reasonable profitability, with the industry average comparable to manufacturing levels, but leading brands should achieve certain excess profits. Under a quasi-perpetual assumption, quality real estate companies can have a valuation around 1X, while other situations will correspondingly reflect discounts or premiums [5][7][19]. Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.33%, with an excess return of +2.01% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 8th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has risen by 11.82%, with an excess return of -2.33% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 15th out of 32 [6][13]. Policy Developments - Nationwide, 65 cities are accelerating the implementation of allocated affordable housing projects. In Nanjing, restrictions on second-hand housing sales have been relaxed, allowing specific conditions for early lifting of sales restrictions. In Chongqing, the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties have been canceled [6][7]. Sales Trends - This week, the transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in sample cities continued to increase year-on-year. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities increased by 41.7% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing transaction area in 19 cities increased by 27.9% year-on-year [7][19].