保险行业2025年投资策略：寻找向上基本面与合理估值的交点

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the insurance industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The life insurance sector is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025, supported by favorable policies, product structure adjustments, and improvements in value rates [2][21]. - The non-life insurance sector is projected to experience premium growth across cycles, benefiting from stable growth in vehicle ownership and recovery in policy-related business [2][21]. - The asset side is anticipated to see a shift towards equity allocation, with high dividend and long-term stock investments becoming the focus for future asset allocation [2][21]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance: Policy Support and Demand Release - The life insurance industry has shown a significant upward trend in liabilities since the second half of 2022, with a notable increase in new business value [21]. - Policies have been implemented to support the industry's stable growth, including adjustments to product structures and a shift towards dividend insurance, which is expected to lower rigid liability costs [23][30]. - The value rate is projected to continue improving, contributing to value growth in 2025 [21][30]. Non-Life Insurance: Premium Growth Across Cycles - The non-life insurance sector is expected to achieve a 6%-8% growth in vehicle insurance premiums due to stable vehicle ownership and recovery in non-vehicle insurance driven by economic growth [21]. - Cost management and pricing optimization are anticipated to improve profitability, particularly in the context of new energy vehicle insurance [21]. Asset Side: Stable Growth Policies and Increased Equity Allocation - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to alleviate asset shortages, with a shift towards increased equity allocation in the insurance sector [21]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment returns for listed insurance companies, indicating a favorable outlook for equity investments [21]. Valuation: Reflecting Pessimistic Expectations - Current valuations suggest that the market has low expectations for future investment returns for major insurance companies, with implied investment return rates for companies like China Life and Ping An being notably low [21]. - The report estimates a reasonable valuation of 0.74X based on sensitivity analysis, indicating that current valuations are significantly undervalued [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Pacific Insurance, China Life, China Taiping, Ping An, China Property & Casualty, New China Life, and AIA [2][21].