TASLY(600535) 甬兴证券·2024-12-02 04:01Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.53 yuan [5] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 is under short-term pressure, with revenue of 6.463 billion yuan, down 1.66% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 842 million yuan, down 18.41% YoY [2] - The cardiovascular business remains stable, with revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, up 3.54% YoY, while the anti-tumor and liver disease treatment businesses grew by 22.68% and 12.64% respectively [2] - The company's core products, such as Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, are expected to stabilize after the impact of centralized procurement policies in 2023 [2] - Huaren Sanniu's potential takeover is seen as a positive development, with expectations of enhanced management, marketing, and policy resources [2] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin, net profit margin, and non-GAAP net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 66.8%, 13.0%, and 15.2%, respectively, down 0.05, 2.68, and 0.84 percentage points YoY [2] - For Q3 2024, the gross margin, net profit margin, and non-GAAP net profit margin were 65.4%, 8.6%, and 11.8%, down 2.78, 6.32, and 4.8 percentage points YoY [2] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.615 billion yuan, 8.938 billion yuan, and 9.537 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.023 billion yuan, 1.176 billion yuan, and 1.363 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 21.2X, 18.5X, and 15.9X [3] Business Segments - Cardiovascular business: Revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, up 3.54% YoY [2] - Anti-tumor business: Revenue of 166 million yuan, up 22.68% YoY [2] - Liver disease treatment: Revenue of 532 million yuan, up 12.64% YoY [2] - Cold and fever treatment: Revenue of 239 million yuan, down 36.42% YoY, mainly due to declining sales of Huoxiang Zhengqi Dripping Pills and Chuanxinlian Nei Zhi Dripping Pills [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%, with net profit attributable to the parent company growing at a CAGR of 15.9% [3] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.69 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively [3] - The ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 8.0%, 8.8%, and 9.7%, respectively [4] Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry, particularly the cardiovascular and anti-tumor segments, shows strong growth potential, supported by the company's core products and Huaren Sanniu's potential takeover [2][3]