煤炭开采行业周报（2024.11.25~12.1）：煤炭交易大会召开在即，关注2025年长协基准价

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming coal trading conference in December 2024 is expected to focus on the long-term contract benchmark price for 2025, which is crucial for the industry [1]. - The report highlights that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the signing and performance of long-term coal contracts for 2025, although it does not specify the benchmark price [1]. - Recent trends show a rebound in overseas natural gas prices while domestic coal prices continue to decline, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal at 5500 kcal dropping by 1.25% week-on-week [1]. - The report notes that coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port remain at a record high, with a total of 6.85 million tons as of November 29, 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.86% week-on-week but an increase of 12.11% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The coal trading conference is set to take place from December 4 to 6, 2024, in Rizhao, Shandong Province, marking it as the largest and most influential coal event in China [1]. - The report indicates that the average price of thermal coal at the Shaanxi Yulin pit is 721 yuan per ton, down 0.55% week-on-week [1]. Price Trends - The report details that the average price of Australian Newcastle thermal coal is 90 USD per ton, reflecting a decrease [1]. - Brent crude oil prices have also seen a decline, settling at 72.94 USD per barrel, down 2.97% [1]. Supply and Demand - Iron output and blast furnace capacity utilization rates continue to decline, with the average iron output per day at 6973 tons, down 1.87% [1]. - The report mentions that the operating rate of major sample washing plants is currently at 68.6%, indicating a slight decrease [1]. Inventory Tracking - The report highlights that coal inventories at major ports are at their highest levels for the same period, with independent coking plants holding 3108.8 million tons of coking coal, up 6.43% week-on-week [1]. - The report also notes that the average temperature in major cities has been low, which may impact coal demand [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector is poised for a good investment opportunity, particularly in companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, due to the expected stability in coal prices and potential upward pressure from seasonal demand [1].