MEITUAN(03690) 浙商证券·2024-12-02 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [1][4][7] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue reached 935.8 billion yuan (YoY +22.4%), exceeding consensus expectations by 1.7%, driven by stronger-than-expected core local commerce revenue [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 128.3 billion yuan (YoY +124.0%), surpassing consensus by 10.1%, with a Non-IFRS profit margin of 13.7% (YoY +6.2pct, QoQ -2.8pct) [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3369/3898/4469 billion yuan and Non-IFRS profits of 417/539/673 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.9/17.7/14.2 [1][7] Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in Q3 2024 was 693.7 billion yuan (YoY +20.2%), 1.5% above consensus, with delivery orders reaching 70.8 billion (YoY +14.5%) [1] - Delivery revenue was 277.8 billion yuan (YoY +20.9%), 14.2% above consensus, driven by changes in accounting, increased merchant adoption of Meituan delivery, and higher long-distance, nighttime, and large-item orders [1] - Operating profit for core local commerce was 145.8 billion yuan (YoY +44.4%), 13.7% above consensus, with an operating margin of 21.0% (YoY +3.5pct, QoQ -4.1pct) [1] Food Delivery - Food delivery revenue was 467.1 billion yuan (YoY +17.0%), 2.9% below consensus, with total orders reaching 61.5 billion (YoY +12.3%, daily average of 66.86 million) [1] - Average revenue per order was 7.59 yuan (YoY +4.2%), driven by higher-than-expected delivery and advertising revenue, partially offset by lower AOV [1] - Operating profit for food delivery was 88.3 billion yuan (1.44 yuan per order, YoY +29.1%), with an OPM of 18.9% (YoY +1.8pct, QoQ -0.8pct), 0.9pct above consensus [1] Instashopping - Instashopping revenue was 66.9 billion yuan (YoY +39.5%), with total orders reaching 9.3 billion (YoY +32%, daily average of 10.76 million), achieving slight profitability [1] In-store, Hotel & Travel - In-store, hotel & travel revenue was 159.8 billion yuan (YoY +23.0%), 2.1% above consensus, with GTV growth of 23%, 1.5% above consensus [1] - Operating profit for this segment was 52.2 billion yuan (YoY +29.0%), with an OPM of 33.2% (YoY +1.5pct, QoQ -2.0pct), 0.8pct below consensus [1] New Business - New business revenue in Q3 2024 was 242.0 billion yuan (YoY +28.9%), 8.3% below consensus, with an operating loss of 10.3 billion yuan (YoY -79.9%, QoQ -21.9%), 42.4% better than consensus [2] - The operating loss margin was 4.2% (YoY +23.0pct, QoQ +1.9pct), with Meituan优选 (preferred selection) contributing significantly to the reduction in losses [2] - Overseas business investments are expected to increase significantly, with full-year new business losses projected at 72-73 billion yuan, aiming for breakeven by 2026-2027 [2] Financial Summary - Gross profit was 367.5 billion yuan (YoY +36.2%), 3.5% above consensus, with a gross margin of 39.3% (YoY +4.0pct), 0.6pct above consensus [6] - Sales expenses were 179.5 billion yuan (YoY +6.2%), 5.5% above consensus, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2% (YoY -2.9pct, QoQ +1.2pct) [6] - R&D expenses were 52.9 billion yuan (YoY flat), 17.3% below consensus, with an R&D expense ratio of 5.7% (YoY -1.3pct, QoQ -0.8pct) [6] - Administrative expenses were 28.0 billion yuan (YoY +10.2%), in line with expectations, with an administrative expense ratio of 3.0% (YoY and QoQ flat) [6] Investment Recommendations - Meituan's strong competitive position in food delivery and instashopping, coupled with its ability to innovate and optimize efficiency, is expected to drive continued revenue growth and profit extraction [7] - The company's strategic focus on differentiated product selection and overseas expansion is likely to support long-term growth, with profitability expected to improve in the coming years [7]