融资租赁行业2024年回顾与2025年展望

Industry Investment Rating - The industry outlook is rated as "Developing" [5] Core Views - The total number of financial leasing companies and contract balances have declined in 2024, mainly due to the decrease in foreign-funded financial leasing companies [3] - The issuance scale of bonds by financial leasing companies increased by 5.87% YoY from January to October 2024, with ESG bonds growing rapidly [3] - The industry faces significant bond maturity pressure in 2025, with 45.45% of credit bonds due to mature [3] - Regulatory policies are expected to be further unified, with financial leasing and financial leasing companies facing stricter regulations [4] - The industry is undergoing significant differentiation and transformation pressure, with a focus on green leasing, digital transformation, and new technology fields [4] Industry Overview and Policy Environment - The total number of financial leasing companies decreased to 8,671 by the end of June 2024, with foreign-funded companies accounting for the majority [7] - The total contract balance of financial leasing companies was approximately 5.606 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.60% compared to the end of 2023 [7] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" in 2024, further regulating the industry [8] - Local financial regulatory authorities have continued to guide financial leasing companies to serve the real economy and emphasize the development of green financial leasing [9] Bond Issuance and Credit Status - From January to October 2024, 166 financial leasing companies issued bonds totaling 562.905 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 5.87% [14] - The average coupon rate for credit bonds issued by financial leasing companies decreased by 0.67 percentage points YoY to 2.42% [19] - The net financing amount of financial leasing companies was -12.169 billion yuan from January to October 2024, indicating a slight net outflow [23] - The maturity of credit bonds is concentrated in 2025, with 45.45% of the total credit bonds due to mature [26] ESG Bond Issuance - The issuance scale of ESG bonds by financial leasing companies grew rapidly, reaching 102.077 billion yuan by the end of October 2024 [27] - The number of companies issuing ESG bonds increased from 4 in 2020 to 53 by the end of October 2024, with financial leasing companies being the main issuers [27] Business and Financial Performance - The average total assets and owner's equity of sample financial leasing companies grew slightly by the end of September 2024, but the growth rate slowed significantly [35] - The average leverage ratio of sample companies decreased slightly to 4.97x, with AAA-rated companies having higher leverage ratios than AA+ companies [35] - The average operating income of sample companies increased by 2.13% YoY from January to September 2024, but pre-provision profits and net profits declined slightly [39] - The average non-performing loan ratio of sample companies decreased to 1.22% by the end of 2023, with AAA-rated companies having better asset quality than AA+ companies [42] 2025 Outlook - Regulatory policies are expected to be unified, and the liquidity of local government financing platforms (LGFVs) is expected to improve, but risks related to existing LGFV leasing assets remain uncertain [47] - Financial leasing companies are expected to further develop in the green leasing field, leveraging policy support and accumulated green leasing assets [50] - The industry is expected to continue its slow development in 2025, with increasing differentiation and transformation pressure, particularly for companies with high leverage and severe maturity mismatches [50]